Wedbush Analyst Dan Ives Initiates Coverage of SpaceX with Bullish Outlook
Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives has initiated coverage of SpaceX with an Outperform rating and a price target of $190. In a comprehensive report, Ives highlights the company’s potential in the hyperscaler wars, emphasizing its vertically integrated platform across connectivity, launch, and AI infrastructure.
According to Ives, SpaceX is a three-way bet on launch, connectivity, and artificial intelligence. He sees the company as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market, with a strong foundation for growth.
Starlink: The Profit Engine
Starlink, the satellite broadband unit, remains the profit engine for SpaceX, with approximately 12 million subscribers as of June 5. The average revenue per user is near $66, and Ives believes the company holds less than 1% of the global telecom and broadband market, leaving a long runway for growth.
Ives notes that while Starlink is the primary profit engine, the launch business serves as an internal cost center, making everything else possible. SpaceX flew about 170 missions in 2025 and lofted 2,213 metric tons to orbit, more than the rest of the world combined.
AI and Compute: A Key Vertical
The AI and compute vertical is a critical component of SpaceX’s business, with recent deals worth $28 billion annually. Ives highlights the company’s Colossus data centers, which are used for AI compute by partners such as Anthropic and Google. He believes this vertical anchors the sum-of-the-parts value of SpaceX.
Ives admits that SpaceX is not a traditional hyperscaler, as it doesn’t offer all the solutions of AWS or Azure. However, the company can rent out its compute cluster, offloading excess compute as a revenue generator. Its advantage lies in owning a gigawatt-scale compute cluster, which it can build faster and cheaper than anyone else.
X: The Social Platform
Ives flags X, the social platform, as a key component of the SpaceX AI stack, providing a proprietary data and distribution engine that makes the AI stack more defensible.
Starship: The Next-Generation Rocket
The bull case for SpaceX also hinges on Starship, the next-generation rocket. Ives calls Starship the single largest source of value in the franchise, as much as its largest risk. The rocket has flown 12 test flights, but has yet to demonstrate in-orbit propellant transfer as designed. Regulatory pressure may delay payload deliveries slated for the second half of 2026.
Investment Cycle, Not Business Losing Ground
Ives characterizes SpaceX’s mounting losses as an investment cycle, not a business losing ground. He acknowledges that the AI-compute economics underpinning his target depend on Starship performing.
Investors may consider this differently, as SpaceX booked a big adjusted EBITDA loss last quarter, and will likely do so again.
Bull Catalyst: Nasdaq-100 Index Inclusion
SpaceX is set to join the Nasdaq-100 index before the market opens on July 7, an unusually fast inclusion. JP Morgan estimates that this could draw about $4.3 billion of buying from index-tracking funds.
