The 2026 FIFA World Cup is underway, with the Official Prediction Market Partner of the tournament, Kalshi, offering traders the opportunity to bet on various markets related to the event.

How Kalshi World Cup Prediction Markets Work

Kalshi is a prediction markets site that allows users to trade on Yes/No event contracts with clearly defined rules about how the contract settles. This means that traders can purchase shares of an outcome at a given price (between $0.01 and $0.99) and, if correct, receive a payout of $1.00 per share.

For example, if a trader believed that the U.S. Men’s National Team would win its match against Australia, they could have purchased shares on the United States to win in 90 minutes + stoppage time for $0.66 per share. This would have earned them $100 if the USMNT actually won the match.

Share prices are reflective of what the market predicts the probability of a particular outcome to be and are subject to change as money rolls in. This allows traders to adjust their bets based on the market’s current sentiment.

Kalshi World Cup Pricing Structure

Kalshi uses a pricing structure that reflects the market’s predicted probability of a particular outcome. This pricing structure is as follows:

• $0.10 per share = +900
• $0.20 per share = +400
• $0.30 per share = +233
• $0.40 per share = +150
• $0.50 per share = +100
• $0.60 per share = -150
• $0.70 per share = -233
• $0.80 per share = -400
• $0.90 per share = -900

This pricing structure allows traders to easily understand the market’s predicted probability of a particular outcome and make informed decisions about their bets.

Popular Kalshi World Cup Markets

Kalshi offers a variety of markets related to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, including the winner of the tournament and the Golden Boot winner. Traders can purchase shares of these markets and receive a payout if their chosen outcome occurs.

Some popular markets include:

• Brazil vs. Norway: This Round of 16 matchup will take place at 4 p.m. ET on July 5 at MetLife Stadium. Norway’s Erling Haaland has scored in every match this tournament and will look to keep that streak alive against a shaky Brazil defense.
• Mexico vs. England: This Round of 16 matchup will take place at 8 p.m. ET on July 5 at Mexico City Stadium. Mexico enters unbeaten and yet to concede a goal, a defensive record England’s Harry Kane will look to break.

Golden Boot Winner Markets

Kalshi also offers markets for the Golden Boot winner, which is awarded to the player who scores the most goals throughout the duration of the tournament. Past winners include Kylian Mbappe, Harry Kane, Ronaldo, and Thomas Muller.

Some popular Golden Boot markets include:

• Kylian Mbappe: The Real Madrid superstar and French international led all scorers with eight goals at the 2022 FIFA World Cup, narrowly edging out Argentinian legend Lionel Messi (7). Mbappe is in his prime at 27 years old and has scored 41 goals in 42 matches across all competitions for Real Madrid this season.
• Harry Kane: Another former Golden Boot winner, Kane scored six goals to win the award in 2018 in Russia. Kane has scored 58 goals in 51 matches for German giants Bayern Munich this year and has also scored 78 goals in 112 international appearances for England.

This article will provide a comprehensive guide to trading on the 2026 FIFA World Cup using Kalshi’s prediction markets.

For more information on Kalshi and its prediction markets, please visit their website.