Eduardo Rodriguez is undoubtedly one of the most impressive pitchers in the league this season. With his 12th season under his belt, he has proven himself to be a consistent force on the mound. However, his recent performance has left everyone in awe, as he continues to outperform every projection and expectation.

After consecutive seasons with an ERA north of 5.00, Rodriguez’s current success is nothing short of remarkable. His ERA has plummeted to 2.48, a testament to his exceptional pitching skills. Among 26 starting pitchers with a 3.50 ERA or better, he ranks 18th in walk rate, 25th in strikeout rate, 26th in xERA, and 24th in FIP.

The numbers are staggering, and it’s hard to believe that Rodriguez is still pitching at this level. His recent shutout performance against the Pirates, who boast the third-best offense in baseball, is a perfect example of his exceptional skill. Despite allowing just two hits and a walk, he struck out seven batters, showcasing his ability to dominate on the mound.

What’s Behind Rodriguez’s Success?

While it’s natural to search for an explanation behind Rodriguez’s impressive performance, the truth is that it’s largely unsustainable. His peripherals, such as walk rate, strikeout rate, and xERA, suggest that he’s pitching well, but not necessarily better than expected. The Diamondbacks’ defense has also been a contributing factor, but it’s not enough to explain the magnitude of his success.

One possible explanation is that Rodriguez is simply pitching well, locating his pitches in the right spots to limit damage on contact. However, even this explanation falls short, as his xERA, which accounts for the quality of contact a pitcher allows, suggests that he’s not necessarily getting the kind of luck that would explain his success.

Ultimately, the best explanation for Rodriguez’s success is that, well, stuff happens. In a league with hundreds of starting pitchers, it’s inevitable that a few will outperform their peripherals every season. While it’s impossible to predict who will be the next to do it, it’s clear that Rodriguez’s success is not sustainable in the long term.

Three Up, Three Down

Here are three big performances that have players trending up, and three that have the arrow pointing in the opposite direction.

Cam Schlittler

There isn’t a lot of nuance to Schlittler’s approach most days. He throws hard and he throws his hardest pitches almost exclusively – entering play Wednesday, he had thrown his three fastball variants a combined 90.9% of the time. But he’s had that curveball in his back pocket all season, sporting a 38.5% whiff rate on the pitch.

Christian Scott

Scott finally finished six innings for the first time Wednesday, taking a tough-luck loss to the Braves. He gave up just one run on five hits and a walk while striking out seven, and he got up to 98 pitches – an impressive performance for a guy who has been handled with kid’s gloves for much of this season. However, there is one wrinkle here: Scott is up to 83 pitches on the season, just 6.2 short of his career high, set back in 2024.

Brandyn Garcia

Garcia might be the most interesting of the bunch – he has a 2.17 ERA in 29 innings this season, and while he wasn’t nearly that good in previous stints in the majors, the underlying numbers do back it up in this case. He has a 1.84 xERA with a 31% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate, and those are certainly closer-caliber numbers.

AJ Smith-Shawver

Smith-Shawver didn’t blow the doors off the joint in his return from Tommy John surgery Wednesday, so you don’t need to run out to add him. He pitched 4.1 innings while allowing two runs on four hits and a couple of walks. He struck out four, which isn’t bad, but he also generated just two swinging strikes on 69 pitches, which leaves a lot to be desired.

Jacob Lopez

Lopez has been pretty disastrous this season, but he’s a funky pitcher who, at his best, thrives on deception more than stuff. He had a pretty impressive start Wednesday in Sacramento against the Red Sox, striking out seven and leading all pitchers with 18 swinging strikes on 97 pitches, while allowing one earned run in 5.1 innings of work.