Latin America’s Changing Geopolitical Landscape

A decade ago, the idea that Russia and China could coordinate to challenge U.S. influence in Latin America and the Caribbean would have sounded strange. However, this spring, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) published an analysis that asked a question that is now more relevant than ever: Could Moscow and Beijing coordinate to challenge U.S. influence in Latin America and the Caribbean?

The report drew on a tabletop exercise based on a hypothetical Venezuela crisis and concluded that Moscow and Beijing pursue very different playbooks in the region, even when their interests overlap. This realization highlights the need for Latin America to develop a new vocabulary that can help the region understand the complex geopolitics of the 21st century.

A Vocabulary Left Behind

For much of the 20th century, Latin American intellectuals were trained to read international trade through the language of imperialism. The argument was powerful and simple: capitalist economies, driven by their need for raw materials and markets, would inevitably seek domination abroad. Lenin’s Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism, gave that idea its most influential form.

This tradition, which includes Dependency Theory, helped inspire generations of economists and diplomats to see foreign capital as an extension of conquest. While this tradition cannot be dismissed so easily, as it is rooted in Latin America’s history of real exploitation and foreign intervention, it is equally important to recognize that it is no longer sufficient to explain the complex geopolitics of the 21st century.

Joseph Schumpeter challenged the economic theory of imperialism more than a century ago, arguing that imperialism was not the natural expression of capitalism but a residue of older warrior states and aristocratic habits. Modern capitalism, in his view, was more likely to weaken imperial impulses than to require them.

The Rise of China and the End of the Cold War

The decades after 1980 further complicated the old theories. China began opening its markets in 1978, and the Berlin Wall fell in 1989. The Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, marking the end of the Cold War and the rise of a new global order.

According to World Bank estimates, less than 9% of the world’s population lived in extreme poverty in 2019, before the COVID-19 shock interrupted that progress. These gains did not come from colonial conquest but from commerce and the gradual integration of more people into the global economy.

However, the answer to globalization’s defects is not to revive a theory that treats economic exchange itself as the enemy. The more useful task is distinguishing between open commerce and political domination.

The Challenge of Geopolitics

The return of geopolitics with force creates a challenge for Latin America’s political language, which largely reflects the conflicts of the last century. The United States is often seen as the region’s dominant imperial power, while Russia and China are viewed as counterbalances to Washington rather than as nations with their own ambitions.

However, this mindset prevents the region from understanding how the world truly works: not one imperial center facing opposition, but multiple powers pursuing different, sometimes conflicting strategies in the same hemisphere.

The region’s sovereignty is not strengthened by romanticizing authoritarian powers, nor is it weakened by trading with China, Europe, and the United States at once, provided the region does not pretend all three share the same political values.

A New Vocabulary for a New Era

Latin America needs a vocabulary that can defend sovereignty without romanticizing authoritarian power and welcome commerce without mistaking it for a complete theory of peace. This new vocabulary should be based on a clear understanding of the complex geopolitics of the 21st century and the different strategies pursued by the major powers in the region.

It is only by developing this new vocabulary that Latin America can navigate the challenges of the 21st century and build a more peaceful and prosperous future for its people.