World Cup Semifinals: Top Four Teams Prove Unmatched Quality and Depth

The margins between power rankings are finer than ever in the World Cup semifinals. With the top four teams from FIFA’s rankings making it to the semis, it’s a battle of the titans. Each of these teams has a rich history of success, with multiple major finals appearances in the past decade and a half.

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The matchups matter less now, as the tournament winner will have to get past two of the three remaining teams. Therefore, my power rankings cover both the likelihood of each team to win the tournament and their overall quality. The top four teams in the rankings are: France, Spain, Argentina, and England.

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France: The Top Team

France has been my top team for most of the tournament, and their 2-0 win over Morocco in the quarterfinals provided no reasons to change anything. For the first time in the tournament, France did not have the majority of possession but still looked untroubled throughout. France consistently exploited the space behind Achraf Hakimi, an obvious strategy with Kylian Mbappé on the left and Hakimi as Morocco’s chief attacking-third threat. This simple adjustment to maximize its massive talents showcases France’s ability to adapt and dominate.

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France will have more work to do in solving Spain’s press, but it still has the highest upside of the remaining teams. A realistic France-Spain result is expected, but there’s a greater chance of France blowing out Spain than vice versa.

Spain: A Strong Contender

I can make a case for Spain in the top spot. Spain has conceded the joint-fewest goals (one) and fewest expected goals (1.8) in the tournament, along with the lowest shot quality (0.05 xG/shot), while putting up 11 goals and a tournament-leading 11.7 non-penalty expected goals. Only one team (Portugal) has had more than six shots against Spain, thanks to a suffocating press that has resulted in 56 percent of Spain’s possessions starting in the middle and attacking thirds, the highest rate among quarterfinalists.

Spain’s numbers are similar to France’s, but they have a stronger overall midfield. While Spain might not be fully clicking in attack, their defense is a force to be reckoned with.

England: A Dark Horse

England moves up a spot after grinding out a third consecutive one-goal win in the knockout stage. The ability to win close games is a positive for England, and their tactics and vast talent pool have shown the ability to win in different ways. Between Thomas Tuchel’s tactics and the flexible talent at his disposal, the Three Lions have shown they can adapt to any situation.

Argentina presents its own set of challenges, but England’s stronger aerial presence should manifest itself at both ends. In Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham, England has two players capable of winning any match, supported by a phalanx of midfielders who can attack through the middle or down the wings.

Argentina: A Talented but Questionable Team

Argentina drops a spot after almost grinding out a third consecutive one-goal win in the knockout stage, before Lautaro Martínez scored in stoppage time for a 3-1 win over Switzerland in the quarterfinals. Argentina leads the tournament with 16 non-penalty goals, but ranks fourth with 10.4 expected goals and has had two extra-time games to pad the numbers.

I still have questions about Argentina’s ability to drive forward with width, given the lack of explosive wingers. Argentina has sent in 78 crosses through six games, tied for fewest among quarterfinalists. Crosses aren’t always the best attacking option, but they’re indicative of how a team chooses to attack. When Argentina has had to get a goal, opposing defenses have been able to defend narrowly while Argentina struggles to find space in the middle of the field.

Argentina still has Lionel Messi and plenty of other talent, but it’s unclear if they can drive forward with width. Those intangibles, from belief to passion, could be enough to make this ranking look silly and to make Argentina the third repeat World Cup winner. Only time will tell.