Market Update: Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Prices Rise Amid Global Weather Concerns and China Demand

The global weather situation is taking center stage in the corn, soybean, and wheat markets, with prices rising significantly due to concerns over crop yields and demand from major buyers like China.

The corn market has seen a notable rebound, with December corn futures rising 9 cents to $4.61 and gaining 19 1/2 cents for the week. This uptick is attributed to the recent USDA supply and demand report, which showed a decrease in old-crop corn carryover by 125 million bushels. The report also put the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2025-26 at $4.15, steady from last month.

While the U.S. Midwest is expected to see favorable conditions for corn pollination in the coming week, traders are keeping a close eye on the potential for a heat dome to form over the Rockies, which may impact the western Corn Belt. Dry conditions in eastern South Dakota may also affect corn yields in the region.

Domestic demand for corn remains strong, driven by ethanol and livestock feed, but South American competition, particularly the advancing safrinha harvests in Brazil, has pressured U.S. corn exports.

China Steps Up Buying U.S. Soybeans

The soybean complex futures rallied last week on confirmation of China purchases of U.S. soybeans. The USDA reported daily sales of 264,000 MT of U.S. soybeans to China during 2026-27, while earlier last week, China booked hefty quantities of U.S. soybeans. The USDA’s supply and demand report also showed a slight rise in its U.S. soybean production estimate from last month.

Renewed Middle East tensions and global weather concerns have boosted soyoil demand, reinforcing the importance of biofuels and supporting the soybean futures complex. With August being a crucial month for U.S. soybean crop growth, traders will be monitoring weather conditions closely to avoid any market shocks.

Wheat Market Sees Bullish News

The winter wheat futures markets rallied last week on escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, prompting talk of shipping disruptions in the Sea of Azov. Ukraine reportedly struck several Russian tankers in the region, connected to the Black Sea.

The USDA’s monthly report also leaned price-friendly for wheat, with the first U.S. all-wheat production estimate falling 7 million bu. from the June projection but being 1 million bu. higher than analysts expected. The agency estimated the other U.S. spring wheat yield at 52.3 bu. per acre, which would be the second-highest yield on record.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the U.S. Midwest have slowed winter wheat crop maturation and harvest progress, although some fieldwork will advance. Drier weather is expected in the next week, which may impact export demand for U.S. SRW wheat.