Fantasy Football Rankings 2026: Expert Model Reveals Top Busts to Avoid

As the 2026 NFL season approaches, fantasy football owners are gearing up for another year of competition and excitement. With training camps underway and the season set to kick off on September 9, it’s time to start draft preparations and identify the players who will make or break your team.

Veterans like Josh Allen, Jahmyr Gibbs, Ja’Marr Chase, and Bijan Robinson are sure to be among the top players on most fantasy football draft boards. However, the key to fantasy success remains finding sleepers and rookies who outperform their fantasy football ADP and avoiding drafting players who end up being fantasy football busts.

Last year, an expert model accurately predicted that Commanders receiver Terry McLaurin would fall well short of his top-50 ADP. The result: A season after piling up nearly 1,100 receiving yards and a career-high 13 touchdown catches, McLaurin had career lows in receiving yards (582) and receiving touchdowns (3). Injuries were a factor, but his per-game averages were down across the board as well, so anybody who avoided him in fantasy drafts dodged a major headache.

The same model has a proven track record providing fantasy football tips, identifying A.J. Brown as a sleeper in 2020, nailing Jonathan Taylor’s monstrous season in 2021, and correctly predicting C.J. Stroud would take a step back in 2024. Additionally, it’s called past fantasy football sleepers like Derrick Henry in 2019, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2018, and Davante Adams in 2017.

Now, the model has simulated the entire NFL season 10,000 times and released its latest fantasy football rankings 2026, along with plenty of sleepers, breakouts, and busts. According to the model, one of the top fantasy football busts to avoid in 2026 is New York Giants receiver Malik Nabers. He’s going off the board around pick No. 32, but the model doesn’t even have him as a top-15 receiver. In fact, it has players such as DeVonta Smith, Nico Collins, and Zay Flowers above him.

Nabers isn’t a lock to be ready to start the season after tearing his ACL last season and then undergoing a follow-up procedure in the spring. The Giants are also expected to lean heavily on the run game under offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, making Nabers a risky pick in the second or early third round.

Another bust that the model has identified is Bills running back James Cook. Cook is going off the board with an ADP around No. 12 overall and is the fifth running back being taken on average. However, the model ranks him as RB No. 10, behind players such as Derrick Henry and Chase Brown, saying that he should be more of a late-second or even third-round pick.

Cook has stacked two impressive seasons, so it’s understandable why he’s getting first-round consideration in many drafts. He did fumble at a higher rate last season, however, and he’s not an elite target out of the backfield. Also, Josh Allen always looms as a touchdown vulture for Buffalo, as these factors are why the model is leaning to other high-end backs early.

So which 2026 fantasy football busts should you be steering clear of, and which high-end WR should you completely fade? The model has revealed its latest fantasy football rankings and cheat sheets for every player, and you can only see who it is by visiting the website.

Below are the top 10 fantasy football ADP for 2026, based on PPR scoring:

• 1. Jahmyr Gibbs (1.46)
• 2. Bijan Robinson (1.92)
• 3. Ja’Marr Chase (3.46)
• 4. Puka Nacua (4.23)
• 5. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (5.00)
• 6. Jonathan Taylor (6.85)
• 7. Christian McCaffrey (7.38)
• 8. Amon-Ra St. Brown (7.62)
• 9. CeeDee Lamb (11.92)
• 10. James Cook (12.15)

Visit the website to see the full 2026 fantasy football rankings and cheat sheets for every player, all from the model that helped managers avoid a disastrous Terry McLaurin season in 2025.